On November 4th, 2008, more than 125 million people went to the polls to perform their civic duty and cast their vote for President of the United States. Unlike elections over the past few decades, there was an unpresedented number of new voters that went to the polls to decide whether John McCain, the Republican candidate and Senator from Arizona, or Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate and Senator from Illinois, would be the right choice to lead our country through this nation’s most trying time in more than 60 years.
Barack Obama won the historic election by a margin of 53%-46%, and more than 8 million votes (NBC). Winning the popular vote seemed to be easy, due to the surge of African American voters and the overall larger ratio of registered Democrats to Republicans. But as we had seen in the election of 2000, the popular vote, in the end, is not the most important factor in claiming victory. The Electoral College, the system of allocating electors awarded for a state’s overall victory, takes a Constitutional priority over the popular vote. How did Senator Obama manage to pull off such a wide margin of victory, winning the Electoral College 365-173, where only 270 Electoral votes are needed? Part of this key to victory revolved around the Latino population in several key “swing states.” Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Florida (one of the most coveted states to win by either side) were all won by Barack Obama with the help of Latino voters that went to the polls, and voted for the Senator (now President) by a margin of 2-1, roughly 66%-31%, according to exit polling reported by various news agencies. For the sake of conciseness, we will only examine Colorado and Florida for this example.
The state of Colorado, the host of the 2008 Democratic Convention, was decided for Barack Obama, and its 9 Electoral votes were awarded to the Democratic candidate. By an overall margin of 54%-45%, it was roughly the same margin as seen in Nevada. However, this state has a much larger population, and voters cast their votes which resulted in 1,216,793 for Obama and 1,020,135 for McCain. This was an overall margin of victory equal to approximately (just under) 197,000 votes. How did the Latino population come into play in a state like Colorado? According to NBC news exit polling, Latinos made up about 13% of the overall voters in the state, or roughly 291,000 Latino voters. Of the Latinos who voted, the broke 61%-38% for Barack Obama. This translates into 177,000 Latino votes cast for Barack Obama in a state that was decided by approximately 197,000. In other words, had all the Latinos who voted for Barack Obama stayed home on election day, and only those who voted for John McCain cast their ballot, the state would have been decided by only 20,000.
Again seeing the trend of a deepening victory on behalf of the Democratic candidate due to the Latino population shows how viable their vote is in such elections. In a state such as Colorado, which voted for George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004, we see a new trend developing that is beginning to reshape electoal politics and presidential campaigning as we know it. Colorado, which is one of the Western states that had been targeted by both Democrats and Republicans, is one of the key indicators that both issues politics and identity politics have catalyzed the electorate, and such issues as comprehensive immigration reform have a major impact on for whom the voters will pull the lever.
The state of Florida has been one of the most contended states in presidential politics in the last decade, and with 27 Electoral votes, it holds the key to victory in any presidential election. Having been contended in 2000 (going to George W. Bush) and being the cause of the “hanging chad” debacle, this time around it was decided in favor of the Democratic candidate Barack Obama by a margin of 51%-48%. A small margin than most states, but carrying a much heavier population and overall turnout. For Obama, 4,143,957 votes and for McCain, 3,939,380, resulting in about a 205,000 vote victory. How did the Latino vote come into play in a state like Florida? According to NBC News exit polling, 14% of the electorate in Florida were Latinos (approximately just over 1 million of the roughly 8 million votes cast in the state.) This, however, yielded a smaller margin amongst Latinos, where Barack Obama won their support by a margin of 57%-42%. This translates into a little over 600,000 votes for Obama and around 400,000 for McCain. In other words, the 200,000 vote overall margin of victory was decided by the Latino population. Had every Latino remained home on election day and opted not to vote, the state would have been virtually tied, resulting in yet another Florida recount as seen in 2000.
This is a fascinating fact, and should be greatly appreciated. One of the most populous states in our country, carrying one of the biggest prizes in electoral politics can be declared “a victory thanks to the Latino population.” Other states that had been reviewed had major influence by the Latino population and should not be overlooked. However, in the realm of presidential elections, this is a major feat. Both in 2000 and 2004, the election would have “gone the other way” (the loser actually winning) had only Florida been decided differently. Florida has a unique population, and even though it is in the Southern region of the United States, it is in no way a true “Southern” state. It consists of a transient population, where many retirees reside coming from all across the nation, an influx of younger people seeking the benefits of the cities of Miami and Orlando, and most of all, a heavy Latino population due to Cuban immigrants. When looking at what counties were carried heavily, most likely due to Cubans, we see Miami-Dade County being carried by Obama 58%42%, Broward County going to Obama 67%-32% and Palm Beach County going the same way by a margin of 62%-38%. These numbers are key to the victory on behalf of the Obama campaign, and it is obvious that the Latino population turned the state in his favor.
Your observation of the Latino vote is very interesting. I knew that this demographic made a difference, but i assumed that due to the fact that there are a large number of illegal immigrants that it would not have had this much of an altering effect. The reason for this comment is my work on the south side of Milwaukee with the Latino population. I have found that in Milwaukee we find barriers such as language and citizenship to be a huge problem when trying to get the Latin community involved in politics.
ReplyDeleteIt is amazing to me that Latinos have made such a difference in these important states and the election overall, as they should. It seems to me that election process is finally starting to resemble what America really wnats.
Nicely done!!!!